What will happen to the global economy in 2015

 


Projections of the world economy for 2015


According to the latest World Economic Outlook forecast, the world economy will develop more slowly than expected before. As expected, in 2015 global growth will be 3.5% instead of 3.8% indicated in the previous report. Thus, the economy will develop a little more dynamically than in 2014. Then the increase was 3.3%.


The forecast for 2016 was also reduced to 3.7% from 4%. What were the main reasons for reassessing the economic outlook for the worse? The main reasons are:



  • low oil prices adversely affect the economies of exporting countries;

  • the fall of the yen and the euro against the backdrop of a rising dollar, from which countries with a high share of "dollar" merchandise imports lose;

  • low growth potential in China and the EU.


The only country in which the IMF has revised its forecasts in a positive direction is the United States. In contrast, the country will benefit more from falling oil prices (like other exporters), which will stimulate domestic demand. The growth forecast for the US economy in 2015 is 3.6%.As a result, the UK will lose its leading role among developed countries in terms of economic growth (the country forecast is 2.7%). But it will remain the EU development leader. The fund expects a growth of only 1.2% from the Eurozone.


In general, countries with developed economies will show growth of 2.4% in 2015-2016, and developing countries - by 4.3% in 2015 and 4.7% in 2016.


The growth of the Chinese economy is expected to be less than 7% in 2015. The IMF lowered the forecast for China for this year to 6.8% from 7.1%. Nevertheless, China and India (with a rate of 6.3%) will become leaders in economic growth rates in 2015.


Forecast of the Russian economy for 2015


In relation to Russia, the IMF predicts a serious decline in 2015 (-3%), whereas in October 2014 a slight increase was expected (0.5%). The most important role in this belongs to the fall in oil prices, international sanctions and the tense geopolitical situation.


It is worth noting that this is not the worst forecast for the development of the Russian economy. Thus, according to the stress scenario from the Central Bank, GDP may lose up to 4.8% in 2015 and another 1% in 2016. The EBRD has published a similar forecast for the fall of the Russian economy by 4.8%.


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